三泰虎：中国企业家、人工智能领域先驱李开复表示，他对OpenAI的可持续性存疑，并探讨了DeepSeek对全球人工智能发展的影响。这位前谷歌高管还在彭博电视台节目中分享了他心目中顶尖的人工智能项目。
I guess the race for supremacy stands between China and the United States right now?
Well, the clearly in both US and China, the pre-training of a giant model has consolidated and is consolidating. And it's become clear that open source will be the winner.
There's still many that will not concede right. OpenAI, Anthropic, who build their businesses believing they can build a better closed model than everyone else.
I think they got shocked when they saw a model as good. They would argue nearly as good. But either way, they're getting it for much, much lower cost.
我猜目前中美之间正在进行一场争夺霸主地位的竞赛，对吗?
嗯，很明显，在美国和中国，大型模型的预训练已经得到了巩固，并且还在持续巩固中。而且现在很清楚，开源会是最终的赢家。
不过仍然有很多公司不愿承认这一点。比如OpenAI和Anthropic，它们在开展业务时坚信自己能够打造出比其他所有人都更好的封闭模型。
我认为当他们看到一个同样优秀的模型时会感到震惊。他们可能会争辩说只是接近(那么好)。但不管怎样，对手能够以低得多得多的成本做到这一点。
If you think about OpenAI's costs of $7 billion of operating costs in 2024, DeepSeek probably operating with 2% the operating expense.
So the issue really isn't whose model is 1% better? I think they're all very good. But the issue is is OpenAI's model even sustainable, Right. I mean, you're spending $7 billion a year making a massive loss. And here you have a competitor coming in with an open source model that's for free.
And that company also is infinitely, infinitely lasting because this founder has enough money to fund it at the current level and has reduced the cost of computing by a factor of 5 to 10. So with that kind of formidable competitor, I think Sam Altman is probably not slee well.
Yeah, well, I do think I mean, obviously that DeepSeek would have really challenged some of the monetization strategies around AI, but at the same time, given that that is so commoditized now and in China as well, that open source approach, how many AI models do you think that the Chinese market can actually sustain?
Well, I think probably I'm guessing three: DeepSeek, Alibaba and Bytedance and they'll evolve over time.
想想看，OpenAI在2024年的运营成本达到了70亿美元，而DeepSeek的运营成本可能只有其2%。
所以问题其实并不是谁的模型要好1% ?我觉得它们都非常出色。但问题在于OpenAI的模型是否可持续，对吧。我的意思是，你每年要花费70亿美元，还面临着巨额亏损。而这时有一个竞争对手带着免费的开源模型进入市场。
而且那家公司还能长久地存续下去，因为它的创始人有足够的资金维持运营，并且计算成本降低了五到十倍。面对这样强大的竞争对手，我想山姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)可能都睡不好觉了。
是的，我确实认为，显然DeepSeek会对围绕人工智能的一些盈利策略构成真正的挑战，但与此同时，考虑到现在无论是在全球还是在中国，开源方法已经如此普遍，你认为中国市场实际上能够支撑多少个人工智能模型呢?
嗯，我想大概是三个吧：DeepSeek、阿里巴巴和字节跳动，而且它们会随着时间不断发展。
Yeah, well there may be there will be many out there who aspire to build one. Right. And we'll see if there's a fourth player.
But even within these three, I think DeepSeek currently has has the momentum and that's why we're embracing that. But I also want to point out that in and I wouldn't say AI is commoditized, I would say the underlying Pioneer Model (Foundation model) that is trained with a huge amount of money. Is more commoditized.
It costs a lot and it's hard to to really compete with open source. But AI is not commoditized, right? It's like, you know, Windows kernel, Linux kernel that's kind of commoditized, but Windows is not commoditized. Microsoft makes a ton of money.
是的，可能会有很多公司渴望打造出自己的模型。没错。我们看看会不会出现第四个参与者。
但即便在这三家公司当中，我认为目前DeepSeek发展势头正猛，这就是我们看好它的原因。但我也想指出，我不会说人工智能已经商品化了，我会说那些花了大量资金训练的底层先驱模型(基础模型)更具有商品化的特征。
这花费巨大，而且很难真正与开源模型竞争。但人工智能本身并没有商品化，对吧?就好比，你知道的，Windows内核和Linux内核有点商品化的性质，但Windows系统本身并没有商品化。微软赚得盆满钵满。
